Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Real Salt Lake
39%
Draw
24%
St. Louis City
37%
Expected goals
1.56–1.61
Real Salt Lake · St. Louis City
Real Salt Lake win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Real Salt Lake score at least twice in 47%; St. Louis City in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Louis City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Real Salt Lake goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market reference | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 24% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 2.47 |
| Draw | 3.91 |
| St. Louis City | 2.57 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Real Salt Lake
| 22 Feb | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 2–2 | D |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | St. Louis CityvsReal Salt Lake | 1 – 1 |
Real Salt Lake: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Real Salt Lake (Home · 15 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 46.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.27 | 2.93 |
Home stats use Real Salt Lake's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.