Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Real Salt Lake
34%
Draw
26%
New England Revolution
40%
Expected goals
1.42–1.56
Real Salt Lake · New England Revolution
New England Revolution win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Real Salt Lake score at least twice in 41%; New England Revolution in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
New England Revolution goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Real Salt Lake goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.80 |
| New England Revolution | 2.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 24 Sep · 03:44 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.45–1.53 → 1.42–1.56
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Real Salt Lake
| 22 Feb | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 2–2 | D |
New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Salt Lake (Home · 13 matches) | New England Revolution (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 69.2% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.38 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Real Salt Lake's home record; away stats use New England Revolution's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.