Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 23.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Portland Timbers
41%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
St. Louis City
34%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Portland Timbers win. Expected goals 1.74–1.55 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–2 (8.1%). It finished 2–2.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home · 17 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 82.4% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.82 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.