Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 18.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Portland Timbers
41%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Minnesota United
34%
Final score
5–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Portland Timbers win 41.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Portland Timbers win. Expected goals 1.69–1.55 against 5–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.4%). It finished 5–4.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home · 14 matches) | Minnesota United (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 85.7% | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 85.7% |
| Clean sheet | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.21 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use Minnesota United's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.