Portland Timbers vs Charlotte — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Portland Timbers
48%
Draw
23%
Charlotte
29%
Expected goals
1.87–1.43
Portland Timbers · Charlotte
Portland Timbers win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Portland Timbers win is 2–1 (9.4%).
Portland Timbers score at least twice in 56%; Charlotte in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Charlotte goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Portland Timbers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market reference | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 23% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 2.01 |
| Draw | 4.10 |
| Charlotte | 3.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home · 15 matches) | Charlotte (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 73.3% |
| Clean sheet | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.73 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use Charlotte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.