🇺🇸 MLS·Sunday, 30 August 2026·02:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.79 | 4.79 |
| Austin FC | 5.24 | 5.24 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketPortland Timbers
63%
Draw
20%
Austin FC
18%
Portland Timbers 2.09 xGexpected goals1.15 xG Austin FC
Portland Timbers win 63% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (12.2%).
Portland Timbers score at least twice in 64%; Austin FC in 32%.
2–1 12.2%2–0 9.1%1–1 8.9%1–0 8.9%3–1 7.5%3–0 5.6%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
rows = Portland Timbers goals · columns = Austin FC goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Over 4.5 goals23%
Portland Timbers clean sheet31%
Austin FC clean sheet11%
Portland Timbers score 2+64%
Austin FC score 2+32%
Portland Timbers score 3+35%
Model vs market
| Source | Portland Timbers | Draw | Austin FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 63% | 20% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 20% | 18% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home) | Austin FC (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 90.0% | 63.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 90.0% | 90.9% |
| Clean sheet | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.90 | 3.82 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use Austin FC's away record this season.