Portland Timbers vs Austin FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Portland Timbers
63%
top pick
Draw
20%
Austin FC
18%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Austin FC win 17.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Portland Timbers win. Expected goals 2.07–1.12 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.0%), 2–0 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.1%). It finished 1–2.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home · 14 matches) | Austin FC (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 85.7% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 85.7% |
| Clean sheet | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.43 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use Austin FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.