Portland Timbers vs Atlanta Utd — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 22.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Portland Timbers
48%
top pick
Draw
23%
Atlanta Utd
29%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Atlanta Utd win 28.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Portland Timbers win. Expected goals 1.81–1.34 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (7.3%). It finished 0–1.
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Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Portland Timbers (Home · 17 matches) | Atlanta Utd (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 82.4% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 11.8% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.82 | 2.56 |
Home stats use Portland Timbers's home record; away stats use Atlanta Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.