Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Philadelphia Union
68%
Draw
20%
Toronto FC
13%
Expected goals
2.31–1.00
Philadelphia Union · Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Philadelphia Union score at least twice in 67%; Toronto FC in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Toronto FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.45 |
| Draw | 5.13 |
| Toronto FC | 5.85 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Apr 26 | Toronto FCvsPhiladelphia Union | 3 – 3 |
Philadelphia Union: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 16 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 62.5% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 26.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.73 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.