Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 187.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Philadelphia Union
64%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Orlando City SC
15%
Final score
4–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 64.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 2.24–1.07 against 4–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.5%), 2–0 (9.1%). It finished 4–2.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 17 matches) | Orlando City (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 88.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.06 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.