Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Philadelphia Union
67%
Draw
17%
Orlando City
15%
Expected goals
2.47–1.12
Philadelphia Union · Orlando City
Philadelphia Union win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.6%), 3–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Philadelphia Union score at least twice in 71%; Orlando City in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Orlando City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market reference | 67% | 17% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 67% | 17% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.36 | 1.45 Betano |
| Draw | 5.26 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.95 | 4.54 | 5.26 Pinnacle |
| Orlando City | 5.87 | 6.25 | 5.50 | 6.10 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 6.10 | 5.13 | 6.25 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
| 14 May 26 | Orlando CityvsPhiladelphia Union | 4 – 3 |
Philadelphia Union: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 12 matches) | Orlando City (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 61.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 84.6% |
| Clean sheet | 41.7% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 5.08 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.