Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Philadelphia Union
63%
Draw
20%
New England Revolution
17%
Expected goals
2.40–1.20
Philadelphia Union · New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.5%), 1–1 (8.5%), 2–0 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Philadelphia Union score at least twice in 69%; New England Revolution in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
New England Revolution goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market reference | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.52 |
| Draw | 4.70 |
| New England Revolution | 5.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | New England RevolutionvsPhiladelphia Union | 2 – 1 |
Philadelphia Union: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 15 matches) | New England Revolution (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.87 | 3.13 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use New England Revolution's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.