Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Philadelphia Union
57%
pick · result
Draw
21%
FC Cincinnati
22%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 57.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 2.06–1.19 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (8.4%). It finished 5–0.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 16 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 76.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 62.5% | 76.5% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 4.18 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.