Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Philadelphia Union
68%
pick · result
Draw
18%
CF Montreal
14%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 68.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 2.35–0.99 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.3%), 2–0 (10.0%), 1–1 (8.3%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Philadelphia Union (Home · 16 matches) | CF Montreal (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 62.5% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.65 |
Home stats use Philadelphia Union's home record; away stats use CF Montreal's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.