Orlando City vs Toronto FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Orlando City
52%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Toronto FC
25%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Orlando City win 51.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Orlando City win. Expected goals 1.82–1.14 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.1%), 2–0 (8.6%). It finished 3–0.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Orlando City (Home · 16 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.38 | 2.81 |
Home stats use Orlando City's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.