Orlando City vs San Diego FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Orlando City
46%
pick · result
Draw
23%
San Diego FC
31%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Orlando City win 45.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Orlando City win. Expected goals 1.67–1.43 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (7.7%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Orlando City (Home · 16 matches) | San Diego FC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.38 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Orlando City's home record; away stats use San Diego FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.