Orlando City vs New York City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Orlando City
47%
Draw
24%
New York City
29%
Expected goals
1.83–1.40
Orlando City · New York City
Orlando City win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (7.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Orlando City win is 2–1 (9.3%).
Orlando City score at least twice in 55%; New York City in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
New York City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Orlando City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.73–1.49 → 1.83–1.40
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Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 7 Mar 26 | New York CityvsOrlando City | 5 – 0 |
Orlando City: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Orlando City (Home · 15 matches) | New York City (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Orlando City's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.