Orlando City vs New England Revolution — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Orlando City
51%
Draw
21%
New England Revolution
28%
Expected goals
1.96–1.51
Orlando City · New England Revolution
Orlando City win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.7%), 1–1 (9.1%), 2–0 (6.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 68% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Orlando City score at least twice in 60%; New England Revolution in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
New England Revolution goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Orlando City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market reference | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 21% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Orlando City | 1.89 |
| Draw | 4.36 |
| New England Revolution | 3.42 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Sept 26 | New England RevolutionvsOrlando City | 4 – 2 |
Orlando City: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Orlando City (Home · 16 matches) | New England Revolution (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 81.2% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.38 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Orlando City's home record; away stats use New England Revolution's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.