New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City — MLS forecast, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
New York Red Bulls
32%
Draw
26%
St. Louis City
42%
Expected goals
1.38–1.61
New York Red Bulls · St. Louis City
St. Louis City win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St. Louis City win is 1–2 (9.0%).
New York Red Bulls score at least twice in 40%; St. Louis City in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Louis City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 3.41 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | 3.02 | 3.41 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.22 | 4.33 | 3.80 | 4.05 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.47 | 4.33 Bet365 |
| St. Louis City | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.90 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.98 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 30 Sep · 03:48 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home · 12 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.42 | 2.77 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.