New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
New York Red Bulls
31%
Draw
23%
St. Louis City
45%
Expected goals
1.34–1.64
New York Red Bulls · St. Louis City
St. Louis City win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St. Louis City win is 1–2 (9.6%).
New York Red Bulls score at least twice in 39%; St. Louis City in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Louis City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market reference | 31% | 23% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 23% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 3.02 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.98 | 2.75 | 3.02 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.49 | 4.00 Pinnacle |
| St. Louis City | 2.13 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.20 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home · 12 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 38.5% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.42 | 2.77 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.