New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
New York Red Bulls
32%
Draw
24%
Philadelphia Union
45%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 44.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 1.41–1.59 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.0%), 1–2 (10.7%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–3.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home · 16 matches) | Philadelphia Union (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.31 | 3.94 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use Philadelphia Union's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.