New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
New York Red Bulls
27%
Draw
21%
Inter Miami
51%
Expected goals
1.48–2.03
New York Red Bulls · Inter Miami
Inter Miami win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.0%), 2–1 (6.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
New York Red Bulls score at least twice in 43%; Inter Miami in 61%.
Scoreline distribution
Inter Miami goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 23% | 47% |
| Market reference | 27% | 21% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 21% | 51% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 3.43 |
| Draw | 4.39 |
| Inter Miami | 1.88 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Inter Miami
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | Inter MiamivsNew York Red Bulls | 2 – 2 |
New York Red Bulls: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home · 15 matches) | Inter Miami (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.3% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 73.3% |
| Clean sheet | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 3.80 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use Inter Miami's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.