New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
New York Red Bulls
51%
Draw
23%
Atlanta Utd
27%
Expected goals
1.86–1.31
New York Red Bulls · Atlanta Utd
New York Red Bulls win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely New York Red Bulls win is 2–1 (9.9%).
New York Red Bulls score at least twice in 56%; Atlanta Utd in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Atlanta Utd goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market reference | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 23% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 1.90 |
| Draw | 4.15 |
| Atlanta Utd | 3.55 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 16 Aug 26 | Atlanta UtdvsNew York Red Bulls | 2 – 1 |
New York Red Bulls: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home · 16 matches) | Atlanta Utd (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.31 | 2.56 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use Atlanta Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.