New York City vs New York Red Bulls — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 63.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
New York City
55%
top pick
Draw
22%
New York Red Bulls
23%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a New York Red Bulls win 23.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a New York City win. Expected goals 1.86–1.14 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–1 (10.3%), 2–0 (8.9%). It finished 0–1.
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New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York City (Home · 17 matches) | New York Red Bulls (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 64.7% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.18 | 3.18 |
Home stats use New York City's home record; away stats use New York Red Bulls's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.