New York City vs New England Revolution — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
New York City
43%
top pick
Draw
26%
New England Revolution
31%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a New England Revolution win 31.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a New York City win. Expected goals 1.73–1.44 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.5%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York City (Home · 17 matches) | New England Revolution (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 81.2% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.18 | 3.12 |
Home stats use New York City's home record; away stats use New England Revolution's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.