New York City vs Nashville SC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
New York City
35%
Draw
27%
result
Nashville SC
38%
top pick
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nashville SC win. Expected goals 1.45–1.46 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (7.8%). It finished 0–0.
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New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New York City (Home · 17 matches) | Nashville SC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 37.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.18 | 2.00 |
Home stats use New York City's home record; away stats use Nashville SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.