Columbus arrive in New York in considerably better shape, having won three of their last five on the road, while New York City have managed just one win in their last five at home, a run that has left them stranded in the lower half of the table despite averaging 2.7 goals scored per home game. The defensive vulnerabilities on both sides are hard to ignore — Columbus have failed to keep a single clean sheet away from home this season, and New York City have managed just one at home.

The goal data here is striking. Both sides sit well above the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5, with Columbus in particular involved in high-scoring away fixtures across the board. The data suggests this match carries significant attacking output potential from both ends.

Despite Columbus sitting one place below their hosts, form points to the visitors being the stronger side right now. This looks like a game that undervalues Columbus.