New England Revolution vs Orlando City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 19.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
New England Revolution
52%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Orlando City
26%
Final score
4–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a New England Revolution win 51.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a New England Revolution win. Expected goals 2.03–1.42 against 4–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (6.6%). It finished 4–2.
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New England Revolution
| 22 Feb | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–4 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 6–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Apr | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | New England Revolution (Home · 17 matches) | Orlando City (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 88.2% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.06 |
Home stats use New England Revolution's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.