Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Nashville SC
66%
Draw
19%
Toronto FC
15%
Expected goals
2.26–0.98
Nashville SC · Toronto FC
Nashville SC win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Nashville SC score at least twice in 66%; Toronto FC in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Toronto FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nashville SC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market reference | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1.46 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.50 Betano |
| Draw | 4.88 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.65 | 4.16 | 4.88 Pinnacle |
| Toronto FC | 5.93 | 5.50 | 5.80 | 5.80 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 6.05 | 5.13 | 6.05 MarathonBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 10 Sept 26 | Toronto FCvsNashville SC | 2 – 1 |
Nashville SC: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Nashville SC (Home · 13 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 61.5% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 84.6% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 38.5% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.92 | 2.58 |
Home stats use Nashville SC's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.