Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nashville SC
68%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Toronto FC
14%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Nashville SC win 68.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nashville SC win. Expected goals 2.29–0.95 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nashville SC (Home · 17 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 47.1% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.65 | 2.81 |
Home stats use Nashville SC's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.