Nashville arrive into this one in strong shape, sitting third in the league and unbeaten in four of their last five at home. Their attacking output at home this season has been exceptional, averaging 3.6 goals scored per game with every single home match going over 2.5 goals, well above the league average of 63%. BTTS has landed in 80% of their home fixtures too, suggesting they keep games open even when dominant.

New York City look a different proposition on the road. Averaging just 0.8 goals per away game with only 20% of those matches going over 2.5, they travel as a side that tends to keep things tight but struggles to contribute much going forward. Their away form of two wins, one draw, and two defeats offers little to build confidence.

With no head-to-head history to reference, the home data does most of the talking here. This shapes up as a Nashville-controlled affair, and the goal expectation leans heavily toward the hosts.