🇺🇸 MLS·Sunday, 30 August 2026·00:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| Draw | 4.29 | 4.29 |
| FC Cincinnati | 3.95 | 3.95 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketNashville SC
54%
Draw
22%
FC Cincinnati
24%
Nashville SC 2.08 xGexpected goals1.26 xG FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC win 54% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10.0%).
Nashville SC score at least twice in 60%; FC Cincinnati in 36%.
1–1 10.0%2–1 8.4%2–0 7.4%1–2 6.8%3–1 6.3%1–0 6.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
rows = Nashville SC goals · columns = FC Cincinnati goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score62%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Over 4.5 goals25%
Nashville SC clean sheet29%
FC Cincinnati clean sheet13%
Nashville SC score 2+60%
FC Cincinnati score 2+36%
Nashville SC score 3+35%
Model vs market
| Source | Nashville SC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 22% | 24% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Nashville SC (Home) | FC Cincinnati (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 72.7% | 90.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.8% | 70.0% |
| Clean sheet | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Nashville SC's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season.