Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nashville SC
54%
pick · result
Draw
22%
FC Cincinnati
24%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Nashville SC win 53.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nashville SC win. Expected goals 2.10–1.25 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (9.8%), 2–1 (8.4%), 2–0 (7.5%). It finished 4–0.
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Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nashville SC (Home · 14 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 78.6% | 78.6% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.79 | 4.36 |
Home stats use Nashville SC's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.