Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 21.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nashville SC
54%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Chicago Fire
23%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Nashville SC win 53.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nashville SC win. Expected goals 2.03–1.31 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (7.3%). It finished 3–0.
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Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nashville SC (Home · 17 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 47.1% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 3.65 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Nashville SC's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.