Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Minnesota United
54%
Draw
22%
San Jose Earthquakes
23%
Expected goals
1.89–1.29
Minnesota United · San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Minnesota United score at least twice in 58%; San Jose Earthquakes in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
San Jose Earthquakes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Minnesota United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market reference | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Minnesota United | 1.78 |
| Draw | 4.19 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Aug 26 | San Jose EarthquakesvsMinnesota United | 1 – 5 |
Minnesota United: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Minnesota United (Home · 16 matches) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Minnesota United's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.