Minnesota United vs Orlando City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Minnesota United
54%
top pick
Draw
22%
result
Orlando City
23%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Minnesota United win. Expected goals 1.93–1.16 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.4%), 2–0 (8.5%). It finished 3–3.
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Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Minnesota United (Home · 13 matches) | Orlando City (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.8% | 64.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 85.7% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.31 | 5.14 |
Home stats use Minnesota United's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.