🇺🇸 MLS·Sunday, 30 August 2026·00:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| Draw | 4.23 | 4.23 |
| Orlando City | 4.07 | 4.07 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMinnesota United
54%
Draw
23%
Orlando City
23%
Minnesota United 1.96 xGexpected goals1.16 xG Orlando City
Minnesota United win 54% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10.5%).
Minnesota United score at least twice in 57%; Orlando City in 33%.
1–1 10.5%2–1 9.1%2–0 8.4%1–0 7.4%1–2 6.6%3–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Minnesota United goals · columns = Orlando City goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Over 4.5 goals21%
Minnesota United clean sheet31%
Orlando City clean sheet15%
Minnesota United score 2+57%
Orlando City score 2+33%
Minnesota United score 3+31%
Model vs market
| Source | Minnesota United | Draw | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 23% | 23% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Orlando City
| 22 Feb | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–4 | L |
| 7 Mar | A | vs New York City | 0–5 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Minnesota United (Home) | Orlando City (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 4.90 |
Home stats use Minnesota United's home record; away stats use Orlando City's away record this season.