Minnesota United vs Los Angeles Galaxy — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Minnesota United
60%
top pick
Draw
20%
Los Angeles Galaxy
20%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Los Angeles Galaxy win 20.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Minnesota United win. Expected goals 2.02–1.11 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.6%), 2–0 (9.3%), 1–1 (9.3%). It finished 2–3.
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Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Los Angeles Galaxy
| 23 Feb | H | vs New York City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Charlotte | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Minnesota United (Home · 16 matches) | Los Angeles Galaxy (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 3.56 |
Home stats use Minnesota United's home record; away stats use Los Angeles Galaxy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.