Minnesota United vs FC Dallas — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 21.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Minnesota United
47%
top pick
Draw
25%
FC Dallas
29%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a FC Dallas win 28.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Minnesota United win. Expected goals 1.71–1.27 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (7.7%). It finished 1–2.
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Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Minnesota United (Home · 16 matches) | FC Dallas (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 3.41 |
Home stats use Minnesota United's home record; away stats use FC Dallas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.