Minnesota United head into this one in strong form, winning four of their last five at home and looking well-organized at the back. Their home defensive numbers are extraordinary this season - a clean sheet rate of 75% with an average of just 0.2 goals conceded per game dwarfs the league average, and a BTTS rate of 0% compared to the MLS norm of 58% tells you everything about how tight they are at Allianz Field. They are not prolific going forward, averaging under a goal per home game, but they clearly do not need to be.

Colorado arrive in poor shape, winless in four of their last five away trips and leaking goals on the road - conceding nearly two per game away from home with a clean sheet rate of just 14%. The form gap here is significant, and this looks like a match where Minnesota's defensive solidity could comfortably suffocate a struggling Rapids attack. Low scoring seems far more likely than the neutral MLS average would suggest.