Inter Miami vs San Diego FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 21 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 110.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Inter Miami
64%
top pick
Draw
17%
result
San Diego FC
18%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 17.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter Miami win. Expected goals 2.45–1.29 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.9%), 3–1 (7.8%), 2–0 (7.4%). It finished 2–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Inter Miami
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Inter Miami (Home · 16 matches) | San Diego FC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 81.2% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.2% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 4.44 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Inter Miami's home record; away stats use San Diego FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.