Inter Miami vs San Diego FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 21 September 2026

MLS·Monday, 21 September 2026

Metis pre-match forecast

Market-anchored distribution

Frozen as published · 110.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.

Inter Miami

64%

top pick

Draw

17%

result

San Diego FC

18%

Final score

2–2

Top pick missed

Metis gave the draw 17.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Inter Miami win. Expected goals 2.45–1.29 against 2–2 actual.

Forecast against the result

Over 2.5 goals73%4 scored
Both teams score67%yes
Inter Miami clean sheet28%no
San Diego FC clean sheet8%no
Inter Miami score 2+71%yes
San Diego FC score 2+37%yes

How this forecast scored

Ranked probability score0.2235
1X2 Brier score1.1310
Probability on the result17.3%

Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.

Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.9%), 3–1 (7.8%), 2–0 (7.4%). It finished 2–2.

Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.

Recent form

Inter Miami

5 SeptHvs Atlanta United FC2–2D
22 FebAvs Los Angeles FC0–3L
2 MarAvs Orlando City4–2W
7 MarAvs DC United2–1W
14 MarAvs Charlotte0–0D

San Diego FC

22 FebHvs CF Montreal5–0W
2 MarHvs St. Louis City2–0W
8 MarAvs Sporting Kansas City1–0W
15 MarAvs FC Dallas3–3D
22 MarHvs Real Salt Lake2–2D

Head to head

No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.

Model context

StatInter Miami
(Home · 16 matches)
San Diego FC
(Away · 17 matches)
BTTS rate81.2%58.8%
Over 2.5 rate81.2%52.9%
Clean sheet18.8%17.6%
Avg goals4.443.12

Home stats use Inter Miami's home record; away stats use San Diego FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.