Inter Miami vs Charlotte — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Inter Miami
66%
Draw
17%
Charlotte
17%
Expected goals
2.59–1.32
Inter Miami · Charlotte
Inter Miami win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.8%), 3–1 (8.1%), 2–0 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Inter Miami score at least twice in 74%; Charlotte in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Charlotte goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Rows: Inter Miami goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market reference | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 17% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 1.46 |
| Draw | 5.33 |
| Charlotte | 5.53 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Inter Miami
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atlanta United FC | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
| 14 Mar 26 | CharlottevsInter Miami | 0 – 0 |
Inter Miami: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Inter Miami (Home · 16 matches) | Charlotte (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 81.2% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.2% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 4.44 | 3.62 |
Home stats use Inter Miami's home record; away stats use Charlotte's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.