Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Houston Dynamo
41%
Draw
26%
St. Louis City
33%
Expected goals
1.50–1.37
Houston Dynamo · St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Houston Dynamo score at least twice in 45%; St. Louis City in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Louis City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market reference | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2.35 |
| Draw | 3.58 |
| St. Louis City | 2.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Aug 26 | St. Louis CityvsHouston Dynamo | 2 – 1 |
Houston Dynamo: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 16 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.