Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Houston Dynamo
61%
top pick
Draw
21%
Sporting Kansas City
18%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sporting Kansas City win 17.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Houston Dynamo win. Expected goals 1.91–0.94 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.0%), 1–0 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 0–2.
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Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 16 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 87.5% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 3.81 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.