Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Houston Dynamo
65%
Draw
20%
Sporting Kansas City
15%
Expected goals
2.00–0.89
Houston Dynamo · Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo win 65% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.6%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Houston Dynamo score at least twice in 60%; Sporting Kansas City in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Sporting Kansas City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market reference | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.42 | 1.50 Betano |
| Draw | 4.66 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.45 | 4.60 | 4.33 | 4.45 | 4.00 | 4.66 Pinnacle |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.95 | 6.25 | 5.80 | 6.20 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 6.05 | 5.13 | 6.25 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 26 | Sporting Kansas CityvsHouston Dynamo | 0 – 2 |
Houston Dynamo: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 13 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 91.7% |
| Clean sheet | 46.2% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.08 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.