Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Draw | 4.11 | 4.11 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 5.26 | 5.26 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketHouston Dynamo
59%
Draw
23%
San Jose Earthquakes
18%
Houston Dynamo win 59% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (14.2%).
Houston Dynamo score at least twice in 58%; San Jose Earthquakes in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Houston Dynamo goals · columns = San Jose Earthquakes goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Model vs market
| Source | Houston Dynamo | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 23% | 18% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 30.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season.