Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Houston Dynamo
60%
top pick
Draw
22%
result
San Jose Earthquakes
18%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Houston Dynamo win. Expected goals 1.86–1.12 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (11.0%), 1–1 (10.5%). It finished 0–0.
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Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 14 matches) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 35.7% | 53.8% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 23.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.07 | 3.15 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.