Houston arrive into this one in poor shape, having won just once in their last five and sitting bottom of the MLS standings. Their home record offers little comfort — they have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, averaging 1.5 goals conceded per game, and their BTTS and Over 2.5 rates of 50% both sit below the league average of 56% and 62% respectively, suggesting low-scoring but open affairs.

San Diego are the more settled side at 12th, though their away form has cooled recently with two defeats in their last three on the road. Interestingly, their away Over 2.5 rate of 67% sits above the league average, driven largely by defensive vulnerability — conceding 2.0 per away game.

With no head-to-head history to reference, the form guide does the talking. San Diego look the stronger outfit here, and this feels like a game where the visitors are undervalued despite their inconsistency away from home.