Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Houston Dynamo
45%
Draw
26%
Minnesota United
29%
Expected goals
1.74–1.40
Houston Dynamo · Minnesota United
Houston Dynamo win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (6.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Houston Dynamo win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Houston Dynamo score at least twice in 52%; Minnesota United in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Minnesota United goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2.12 |
| Draw | 3.66 |
| Minnesota United | 3.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 11 Oct 26 | Minnesota UnitedvsHouston Dynamo | 2 – 2 |
Houston Dynamo: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 15 matches) | Minnesota United (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 86.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 86.7% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use Minnesota United's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.