Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Houston Dynamo
51%
top pick
Draw
23%
result
FC Cincinnati
25%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Houston Dynamo win. Expected goals 1.81–1.25 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (8.2%). It finished 2–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Houston Dynamo (Home · 16 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 76.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 76.5% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 4.18 |
Home stats use Houston Dynamo's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.