FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC Dallas
68%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Sporting Kansas City
14%
Final score
5–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a FC Dallas win 68.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Dallas win. Expected goals 2.48–1.01 against 5–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–1 (8.0%). It finished 5–3.
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FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | FC Dallas (Home · 16 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 87.5% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 3.81 |
Home stats use FC Dallas's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.