FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Dallas
56%
Draw
22%
San Jose Earthquakes
22%
Expected goals
1.98–1.24
FC Dallas · San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.4%), 1–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
FC Dallas score at least twice in 60%; San Jose Earthquakes in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
San Jose Earthquakes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Dallas goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market reference | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 1.74 |
| Draw | 4.23 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4.14 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | San Jose EarthquakesvsFC Dallas | 2 – 3 |
FC Dallas: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | FC Dallas (Home · 14 matches) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 46.7% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 3.00 |
Home stats use FC Dallas's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.