FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
FC Dallas
47%
Draw
25%
Colorado Rapids
29%
Expected goals
1.81–1.25
FC Dallas · Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–2 (8.1%), 2–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Dallas win is 2–1 (7.8%).
FC Dallas score at least twice in 53%; Colorado Rapids in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Colorado Rapids goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FC Dallas goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market reference | 47% | 25% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 25% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 2.06 |
| Draw | 3.82 |
| Colorado Rapids | 3.32 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Colorado Rapids
| 23 Feb | A | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs Portland Timbers | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs New York City | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
| 24 May 26 | Colorado RapidsvsFC Dallas | 1 – 2 |
FC Dallas: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | FC Dallas (Home · 16 matches) | Colorado Rapids (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 2.69 |
Home stats use FC Dallas's home record; away stats use Colorado Rapids's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.