FC Dallas vs Austin FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 88.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC Dallas
58%
top pick
Draw
22%
result
Austin FC
20%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Dallas win. Expected goals 2.11–1.18 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.5%), 2–0 (8.2%). It finished 0–0.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | FC Dallas (Home · 16 matches) | Austin FC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 88.2% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.19 | 3.53 |
Home stats use FC Dallas's home record; away stats use Austin FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.