DC United vs New York City — MLS forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
DC United
31%
Draw
27%
New York City
42%
Expected goals
1.22–1.48
DC United · New York City
New York City win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 0–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely New York City win is 0–1 (8.8%).
DC United score at least twice in 35%; New York City in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
New York City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DC United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 27% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| DC United | 3.04 |
| Draw | 3.57 |
| New York City | 2.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 3 May 26 | New York CityvsDC United | 0 – 2 |
DC United: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | DC United (Home · 16 matches) | New York City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 68.8% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.44 |
Home stats use DC United's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.