DC United vs FC Cincinnati — MLS forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
DC United
33%
Draw
24%
FC Cincinnati
43%
Expected goals
1.64–1.86
DC United · FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (7.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely FC Cincinnati win is 1–2 (8.7%).
DC United score at least twice in 49%; FC Cincinnati in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
FC Cincinnati goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: DC United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market reference | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| DC United | 2.85 |
| Draw | 3.94 |
| FC Cincinnati | 2.24 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
FC Cincinnati
| 21 Feb | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs New England Revolution | 1–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Oct 26 | FC CincinnativsDC United | 2 – 1 |
DC United: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | DC United (Home · 15 matches) | FC Cincinnati (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 73.3% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.07 | 4.33 |
Home stats use DC United's home record; away stats use FC Cincinnati's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.